Giuseppe GiobbeTHE RESEARCH JOURNAL
Ideas, evidence and perspectives on markets and investing.
Market briefings, investment strategy, company analysis and liquidity research.
15 articles
Market Briefing · Daily
Equities improved ahead of the Federal Reserve decision, while Treasury yields, volatility and credit spreads have retreated from recent stress levels. The broader regime remains restrictive: real yields are exceptionally high, leadership is still defensive, US liquidity has weakened, and Bitcoin remains below its short-term trend as crypto liquidity contracts.
Market Briefing · Daily
Risk assets remain caught between easing Treasury yields and deteriorating internal conditions. Technology leadership is weak, credit spreads and volatility remain elevated, US liquidity has fallen, and Bitcoin has slipped below its short-term trend while stablecoin supply contracts, although derivatives deleveraging reduces one source of immediate fragility.
Market Briefing · Daily
A renewed technology sell-off has exposed a widening split inside US equities, while oil and geopolitical risk complicate the inflation outlook. Bitcoin briefly strengthened with rising leverage before reversing toward $81,000, leaving both technology and crypto vulnerable despite lower volatility, easing Treasury yields and contained funding stress.
Market Briefing · Daily
The market is absorbing a restrictive rates regime through rotation rather than broad liquidation. Technology has weakened while energy, healthcare and defensives lead. Bitcoin remains structurally resilient near $82,500, but shrinking stablecoin supply, elevated real yields and wider credit spreads argue against treating that resilience as confirmation of a renewed liquidity-driven risk rally.
Market Briefing · Daily
Monday’s rebound in US technology shares improves the immediate tone but does not repair the underlying deterioration. Rates remain exceptionally restrictive, credit spreads and volatility have widened, and market leadership has rotated sharply toward energy and defensives. Bitcoin is holding near $82,000 with lower aggregate leverage, but weakening stablecoin liquidity and a still-fragile technical structure argue against reading resilience as a clean risk-on signal.
Market Briefing · Daily
The market split widened sharply. Technology is now leading the downside as investors question the debt and returns behind the AI infrastructure boom, while energy, staples and healthcare outperform. Treasury yields fell but remain historically restrictive. Bitcoin continues to resist the equity deterioration, although its internal positioning is becoming more complicated.
Market Briefing · Daily
Markets are absorbing a difficult combination: inflation has accelerated, credit spreads are widening and AI-related technology remains under pressure. Yet Treasuries rallied sharply, broader equities stabilised and Bitcoin continues to hold above its major trend levels. The result is not broad capitulation, but a rotation away from the most rate-sensitive and crowded exposures.
Market Briefing · Daily
September US inflation accelerated to 3.7%, strengthening expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and triggering another technology selloff. Semiconductor and AI infrastructure weakness is spreading while healthcare, energy and consumer staples outperform. Credit remains relatively orderly, but spreads are widening. Bitcoin retains its longer-term uptrend despite weakening spot demand and renewed selling pressure.
Strategy Research
We tested whether industry strength, momentum, volume, entry timing and holding rules could improve investment returns. Some approaches reduced losses, but few produced consistent outperformance. Retaining established leaders showed promise, particularly during the 2026 memory and storage rally. Results remained sensitive to trading costs, historical coverage and concentrated gains.
Market Briefing · Daily
Technology leadership is weakening as semiconductor selling accelerates, while energy continues to outperform amid persistent supply risks. Bitcoin remains above its longer-term trend but is struggling to recover short-term momentum. Credit and volatility remain orderly, leaving a growing divergence between deteriorating market breadth and financial conditions that have yet to signal systemic stress.
Market Briefing · Daily
The market's narrow leadership is becoming increasingly vulnerable. Semiconductor stocks weakened sharply as oil approached $107 and the Federal Reserve reinforced its restrictive stance. Small caps continue to underperform, while Bitcoin remains below its short-term trend despite reduced leverage. Credit and volatility are still relatively calm, but the divergence between strong indices and deteriorating participation is widening.
Market Briefing · Daily
US equities recovered as Treasury yields eased, but the underlying market remains unusually divided. Technology continues to outperform while small caps and financials lag. Bitcoin stabilised near $82,000 after substantial leveraged liquidations, and US liquidity improved sharply. The immediate pressure has moderated, but elevated real yields, persistent inflation and narrow equity leadership remain significant risks.
Market Briefing · Daily
The rates shock is spreading into technology and Bitcoin as oil prices surge above $104. Semiconductor weakness, declining small caps and renewed Bitcoin selling suggest that market leadership is becoming less resilient. Credit and funding conditions remain orderly, but contracting global central-bank balance sheets and persistently elevated real yields are making the environment increasingly difficult for risk assets.
Market Briefing · Daily
Risk assets are beginning to respond to the restrictive rates backdrop. Long yields remain near multi-decade highs, small caps continue to deteriorate and Bitcoin has pulled back toward $83,000. Yet credit, volatility and technology leadership remain resilient, leaving this as an important test of the existing regime rather than a confirmed break.
Market Briefing · Daily
The divergence between bonds and the assets leading the equity market widened again. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31%, real yields reached 2.95% and bond volatility jumped, yet the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records and semiconductor leadership remained broad. Bitcoin has paused near its recent high while leverage fell sharply, leaving its medium-term trend intact without evidence that the latest advance requires continually expanding derivatives exposure.