Giuseppe GiobbeThe broad picture
This work begins with the large forces behind market conditions: central-bank balance sheets, liquidity and debt. My research notebooks examine US and global liquidity measures, their momentum and their relationship with market behaviour.
Debt alongside liquidity
A debt-to-liquidity ratio adds a different perspective from the absolute level of either measure. Before interpreting that ratio, the definitions, units, coverage and publication dates of its inputs need to be explicit.
Regime classification
The rotation notebook includes an experimental framework with expansion, transition and contraction states. Stress, fragility and market-confirmation measures provide additional context. A classification is a research tool, not a guarantee about future returns.
Publication status
The framework, source mapping and validation will be documented before a live dashboard is published. This page currently introduces the scope of that work.